U.S. holiday online sales expected to hit record highs
Adobe’s latest forecast projects U.S. online holiday shopping will reach $275.1 billion in 2026, covering the period from November 1 to December 31. The estimate relies on an examination of over 1 trillion retail site visits, 100 million product listings, and 18 product categories to arrive at the total.
The forecasted total reflects a 6.7% increase over 2025, with the Cyber 5 period—Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday—expected to generate $47.5 billion. This represents 7.4% year-over-year growth and accounts for 17.3% of the entire holiday season’s online revenue.
Cyber Monday and Black Friday to set new records
Cyber Monday is projected to surpass $15 billion in sales, marking a 6.2% increase from 2025’s $14.25 billion. This would mark the fourth consecutive year of record-breaking single-day spending since 2022. Black Friday is expected to follow with $12.9 billion in online purchases, up 9.2% from the previous year.
Thanksgiving Day sales are also rising, with Adobe forecasting $6.9 billion in online transactions, a 8.5% increase. Mobile devices will drive 63% of those sales, up from 61.6% in 2025. Across the entire holiday season, 57.4% of online purchases are expected to come from mobile, slightly higher than last year’s 56.4%.
AI’s Growing Role in Online Shopping and Consumer Confidence
Adobe started tracking how shoppers use AI-powered chat and browser tools during the 2024 holiday season. Since then, traffic from AI referrals to retail sites has surged significantly, with a 1,219% increase by July 2026 compared to October 2024. Year-over-year growth for the same period reached 62%.
The company projects AI-driven traffic to U.S. retail websites will jump 130% during the 2026 holiday season. The largest increases are expected on Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday. A survey of 5,000 online shoppers found that 77% of those using AI tools reported feeling more confident in their purchases, while 69% said they were less likely to return items bought with AI assistance.
Top-selling categories and payment trends
The six fastest-growing product categories in 2026 include electronics, apparel, furniture, groceries, and cosmetics. Electronics are projected to generate $63.3 billion, up 5.9%, while apparel will reach $51.3 billion, a 4.7% increase. Furniture sales are expected to grow 7.3% to $33.4 billion, and grocery purchases will hit $26.1 billion, up 10.3%. Cosmetics will see a 9.5% rise to $9.2 billion.
Buy now, pay later (BNPL) services are gaining momentum, with Adobe projecting $21.3 billion in holiday-season sales, a 6.6% increase from 2025. On Cyber Monday, BNPL transactions could total $1.09 billion, following last year’s milestone when single-day BNPL spending first exceeded $1 billion. Black Friday BNPL sales are expected to reach $807 million.
The company began monitoring AI-driven shopping behavior in 2024, noting a 1,219% surge in AI-referral traffic to retail sites by July 2026, 62% higher than the same period the prior year. During the 2026 holiday season, AI traffic is projected to rise 130% year-over-year, with the largest increases on Thanksgiving (159%) and Cyber Monday.
Consumers are also spending heavily before the official holiday season begins. Adobe forecasts $95.8 billion in online purchases during October 2026, an 8% increase from 2025. A significant portion of this growth is attributed to Amazon’s Prime Day, which Adobe estimates will generate $10 billion in sales over its two-day event on October 6–7. Competitors are expected to offer matching discounts to remain competitive.
Adobe’s projections are based on real-time data from its Digital Economy Index, which tracks transactions across 80 of the top 100 retailers in the U.S. The methodology has been updated to include emerging trends like AI-assisted shopping and mobile-first transactions.
